2024 parliamentary elections in Lithuania: a sweeping victory of the left

By Rokas Stabingis (Independent Scholar)

The math did not add up after the 1st round
The 13th of October, Lithuanians elected half of the parliament in the multi-member constituency (70 MPs) under the proportional electoral system and 8 out of 71 in the single-member constituencies under the majoritarian electoral system, as they received the support of more than 20 percent of registered voters in the I round. With 20 seats, the Social Democratic Party of Lithuania (LSDP) emerged victorious as predicted by the polls. The second came the right ruling party Homeland Union-Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS-LKD) with 18 seats, and the third – the new populist party ‘Nemunas Dawn’ with 15 seats. On election night, the chair of the LSDP expressed her intentions to form a coalition with the Union of Democrats ‘For Lithuania’, led by the former prime minister, Mr. Skvernelis (8 seats), and the Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union (6 seats), all three considered left political parties. Although the ‘Nemunas Dawn’ could be viewed as a potential partner to form a coalition as the math did not add up after the I round (to reach a parlamentary majority, a 71 mandate is needed), it was not invited after the I round, as in some single-member constituencies its candidates were competing against the candidates of the former three.

A social democratic wave on the 2nd round
In the late evening of 27 October, the electoral map (see above) turned red as the LSDP won a staggering victory in the II round by winning 32 mandates out of 37 and scoring 52 mandates in total. It will be one of the biggest factions in the parliament since Independence in 1990. On the same night the LSDP met with representatives of the ‘Union of Democrats ‘For Lithuania’ (14 seats after the II round) and the Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union (8 after the II round). The sheer size of the LSDP’s faction left no room for doubt that this axis of the coalition has the majority (74 seats). The ruling TS-LKD admitted the victory (winning in total 28 mandates) by seeing it as a natural political swing movement from the political right to the left. The other two ruling liberal parties – the ‘Liberal Movement’ got 12 seats, and the ‘Freedom Party’ did not make it into the parliament. Thus, the political right will remain in minority.

Effects of 2024 Electoral Year
The parliamentary elections on 13 October 2024 closed the electoral cycle, which started on May 12 with the presidential election and referendum on dual citizenship. Apart from the incumbent President Mr. Nausėda (independent) and the prime minister Ms. Šimonytė (nominated by the TS-LKD), who managed to the II round, the presidential election allowed to identify new popular figures like Mr. Žemaitaitis (more than 9 % of votes) who played an important role as a chair of the ‘Nemunas Dawn’ in the parliamentary elections. Albeit Mr. Žemaitaitis with his party could not compete in the low-turnout (some 29%) European Parliament elections on 9 June 2024, where 11 mandates of MEPs were distributed among the major systemic forces (the TS-LKD – 3, LSDP – 2, and the rest 6 political parties – 1 mandate each), but in the parliamentary elections he led the ‘Nemunas Dawn’ into a convincing victory by winning 20 seats in the parliament and becoming the third most populous faction.

Political parties saved finances for the parliamentary elections
All political parties that nominated their candidates for the presidential election spent just under 1 million EUR. Some of them did not even put forward any candidate. For example, the LSDP did not nominate its candidate for the presidential election and chose to support Mr. Nausėda. During the low-key European Parliament elections, all political parties in total spent some 2,7 million EUR, out of which 2,25 million EUR went on political advertising. The sums spent for the parliamentary election campaign is more than 2 times higher and consists of 6,5 million EUR, out of which 5,5 million EUR were diverted for political advertising.

Vibrant election campaign, but mediocre turnout
This translated into a vibrant election campaign with various forms of outdoor advertising and social events in city squares and markets. New places were found for billboards and posters, including places unthought of before, gas stations, etc. Some candidates were organizing concerts or performing themselves, although this is deemed vote-buying by law. Buses with posters and loudspeakers were buzzing around the country. Candidates tried to reach voters through door-to-door campaigns, field visits, promotional SMS messages, or emails. There were a lot of TV and radio debates organized by the national broadcaster, the Central Electoral Commission, private media, and civil society organizations throughout the country. Nevertheless, the turnout was mediocre – 52 percent on the I round and only 41 percent on the II round. The low turnout usually benefits major political parties with established voters’ bases. The new parliament will have 64 new MPs. Two parliamentary parties were voted out of the parliament (the ‘Freedom Party’ and populist ‘Labor Party’), and two new political parties got into the parliament: the ‘Nemunas Dawn’ and Union of Democrats ‘For Lithuania’. Obviously, Lithuania leaned on the left.

Photo source: https://rinkimai.maps.lt/rinkimai2024/seimas/